Fantasy Baseball 2026
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Welcome to Roy Hobbles Baseball
Notes on 2026
The ABS Challenge System
I believe ABS will improve offensive production in 2026. Full stop. There are a lot of articles and podcasts out there discussing all the particulate details of ABS but the bottom line is advantage batter.
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What this means for Batters: Swinging at balls out the zone, especially deep in counts, is going to drop. I think rookies and second year players, the ones who have come up under the challenge system in the minors, will understand this change intuitively. For many veterans, it may take a few weeks to fully adapt their at-bat approach but they will get there, and enjoy it.
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What this means for Pitchers: Control will be king in 2026 and effectively nipping around the edges of the strike zone will be an important key to success. Batters will be able to sit on pitches, waiting for something in the zone, getting deeper into counts and inflating pitch counts - I’m expecting a drop in league-wide quality starts in 2026, continuing the trend. Pitchers who struggle with control will see their WHIPS and ERA rise comparatively more than their peers.
Human Beings are Unreliable, Statistically Speaking
Statistics are at the heart of fantasy baseball. In fact, to be a fantasy baseball player is to love statistics, it's part of the appeal. When it comes to numbers, baseball knows no equal in the sports world and things like BABIP, wOBA, wRC+ are just the start. There are lots of fantasy baseball websites and writers that do an excellent job of breaking down the numbers, so I'll leave the detailed equations to the professionals.
Here, you will find a more ‘human’ explanation as to who and why I like someone. Yes, numbers tell a story but so does the combination of age, experience, health, injury, team context, manager, management philosophy, trades, contracts and other elemental aspects. Numbers identify talent but they do not adequately express the quality of opportunity, or lack thereof.
Happy reading and see you in the draft room.
Roy Hobbles
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BEST BALL CUTLINE OBSERVATIONS
March 9, 2026
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Of all the points league variations, the Best Ball Cutline Championship over at NFBC is my favorite.
These leagues combine the in-season convenience of not having to set your lineup while maintaining one’s engagement. There are 2 FAAB periods - April & June - followed by 3 rounds of the cutline process starting mid-July. With limited redrafts, the risk tolerance is lower than regular redraft leagues, but you can still (and must) take a shot or two. The 420-player draft is deep, but it doesn’t completely deplete the player pool. In fact, once your draft finishes, you should immediately review the free agent pool and create some provisional bids, then review and revise as spring training proceeds.
BATTERS MATTER
Players with 600+ points in 2025:
Batters: 45
Pitchers: 2
In one Cutline this year, I didn’t draft my first pitcher until round 18 and I still think my pitching is competitive! I normally don’t wait that late, but I'm usually the last one to draft my first arm.
POWER (LESS) BALL
Power is still king in Best Ball but there are many more ways to accumulate points than just dingers. In 2025, guys like Perdomo, Turang, Bichette, and Garcia were all Top 40 batters and none of them hit more than 20 home runs. All were drafted in the mid to late rounds last year too, delivering huge value to their owners. Guys that have some combination of low strike out, high average/on-base-percentage, and stolen bases should be on your radar, especially if they bat in the top half of the lineup.
MULTI-POSTIONAL
Even studs have off weeks so a deep bench at every position is crucial. My goal is two solid players per position plus one or two more guys who I think will get 500+ AB. The more guys you have that can slot in at more than one position, the better your weekly point totals.
RATIO MITIGATION
For pitchers, points leagues are about volume, skill set, park factor, and team defense - in that order. For example, Logan Webb’s 1.24 WHIP didn’t hurt you last year as his volume, high K’s, and home park factor made him the 10th ranked overall pitcher.
CLOSING TIME
Closers matter less in points league - except when they for sure have the job and play for a manager that likes to stick to one guy. Even when they kinda suck, if the manager sticks with them, they will help your team (see Kevin Hoffman last year). Otherwise, wait.
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My Favorite Starting Pitcher Targets for 2026
January 16, 2026
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I expect Quality Starts to continue to decline marginally in 2026. This is directly related to innings pitched which has declined by about a 0.5 of an innings over the last 10 years -- SPs averaged 5.19 innings pitched in 2025. This has also affected wins as SPs have been credited for only 59% of total wins over the last 4 years. Overall, I am devaluing pitching in 2026, however with fewer starting pitchers getting W's, the guys that can go 6+ innings regularly will be valuable.
In December and January drafts, SPs tend to be a little lower and occasionally in a 15-team draft, I have nabbed an SP in the early rounds. But come March, SPs will get pushed up, as they do every year, and I expect that Skubal/Skenes/Crochet will be taken within the first 9/10 picks in a 15 Team league (and I will be okay with missing out).
As of Mid-January, these are the SPs I am happy to have on my team in 2026. By the end of March, I fully expect there to be a few additions or deletions (but I won't be updating it here). I believe this list contains enough names to accommodate most league formats and team constructions.
SP TARGETS
TIER ONE
Skubal - Is there any ceiling left?
Skenes - The Ratio King. Better offense in Pitt could generate more Wins.
Crochet - K's all day. Above average reliability for Wins.
TIER TWO
Sanchez - Even if he regresses a touch, he becomes Brown, so yeah.
Brown - Volume, K's, Ratios...what's not to like?
Fried - A repeat of 18W may be difficult but he's a solid piece of any pitching arsenal.
TIER THREE
Ryan - Talented but may have less Wins if stays in Minny.
Luzardo - 3 bad starts from last year keeping his ADP repressed. 2025 with better ratios very possible.
Bradish - Feels like all systems go after TJ. 2023 could be repeated. Team bats will be good for extra W.
TIER FOUR
Gray - Wins & Ks more than ratios.
Sheehan - 6-man rotation = less innings, but with one less arm in pen, Dodger SPs may have higher IP/GS.
Pepiot - Welcome back to the Trop.
Shittler - Has the stuff and the nerve. NYY may go to a 6-man rotation when Cole/Rodon return.
Rasmussen - A ratio darling. Returning to friendly pastures should help mitigate any regression.
TIER FIVE
Williams - Consistent. 180 innings possible.
Bibee - Last year's hot pick had his ups and downs. Feels like great value in 2026.
Rogers - I don't think he regresses that much.
R. Suarez - Philly to Boston not much of a park improvement but he has the talent.
TIER SIX
Flaherty - A return to Detroit means a slight park upgrade. Only age 30. I like his situation.
Nola - 2025 injuries were not arm related. 180ish K and 3.50ish ERA very possible. Age 33 season.
Gallen - Another returning to a previous address. Capable of much more than in 2025.
Boyd - A crafty lefty in a pitcher's park with a great defense. I like him in this spot.
TIER SEVEN
Leiter - Built for more. Great pitchers park. Could rise in ADP as season approaches.
Nelson - A touch of regression possible. Should get to 150+ innings.
S. Smith - An excellent showing considering the context. Think he and the team take a modest step forward.
Mize - Should get a full run in 2026 but 14 wins may be hard to repeat.
Priester - More innings, but probably higher ratios too, but not too much higher.
Cantillo - Showed he belongs in the rotation last year. 150 innings potential in 2026.
Cameron - Young lefty with talent. Bringing in the outfield fences may limit his progress. Low Ks.
B. Ashcraft - Lots to like here but a crowded stable of SPs could limit his chances.
Burrows - Should like the new context in Houston if given his chance.
Taillon - Veteran had some injury issues but still showed his roster value.
TIER EIGHT
Cavalli - Had a decent thermos of coffee in 2025. Should get 130-140 inning in 2026 to show his stuff.
Snelling - ADP sure to rise, but do teams wait to bring up their top prospects with lockout looming in 2027?
Patrick - Currently 6th on the SP depth chart. Peralta trade and/or Henderson struggles could change that.
Morales - Very nice showing after callup in August. Tough pitchers park. Decent value on a good offensive team.
Giolito - He says he's fully recovered from elbow issue but is currently without a team. I'll roll the dice.
Ponce - There's a positive track record of MLB pitchers going to Korea/Japan and returning the better for it.
Detmers - Angels say he's found his mojo and deserves a chance to start. At this ADP, I'll give him a chance too.
Mahle - Great new situation gives him lots of value at this spot.
Javier - Feels similar to the Bradish context but with poorer results upon return. Potential here.
TIER NINE
Oviedo - Lat strain held him back last year, but he has the skill and situation to be a high value late round pick.
Houser - Will get the most out of his modest skill set in SF.
May - 2024 wiped out by Esophagus issue. 2025 was a 'find yourself' year. Think he takes another step in 2026.
Lauer - Even with Cease/Ponce, think he again gets multiple chances to start. One injury away from FT gig.
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My Favorite ADP Values (so far)
December 29, 2025
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These observations are based on the ADP of NFBC 15-Team drafts between Dec 15 - 28, 2025 (30 total drafts)
The Players - Batter Edition
ADP 20 - Vladimir Guerrero Jr
Projection: 103R / 41HR / 117RBI / 4SB / 0.316 AVG
Vladdy had one of the lowest launch angles in all of baseball in the 2025 regular season and only 23 HR, one of the lowest marks of his career. Guerrero is the ultimate team guy, and he bought into the hitting philosophy of Jays’ new hitting coach David Popkin, as did his teammates. In the postseason though, Vlad reminded us of his natural power. In 2026, I expect Guerrero to tweak his approach to find the perfect balance between contact and power. He already knows the strike zone better than most umpires and ABS will be his validation. A full season from a healthy Anthony Santander and Dalton Varsho will provide the protection Junior needs to deliver superstar numbers. A Bo Bichette resigning and/or a Kyle Tucker addition would be gravy.
ADP 22 - Jazz Chisholm Jr
Projection: 94R / 35HR / 95RBI / 37SB / 0.257 AVG
Jazz had a very good season in 2025, delivering 31-31 HR/SB in only 462 ABs. Yes, he struck out a little bit more than the previous year but considering the nagging injuries and hitting mostly in the lower half of the lineup, he did just fine. Combine his 2025 production with his 2024 AB total and he could be touching 40/40 in 2026, his 28 year old season. Could an uptick in his OBP could see him displacing Trent Grisham at the top of the order? He may not get as many green lights to steal though, batting in front of Judge. A good Spring Training performance could very well push his ADP into the teens by March. Even with the mediocre projected batting average, the scarcity at second base, his dual eligibility, and playing in a lineup with Aaron Judge make him extremely valuable.
ADP 52 - Wyatt Langford
Projection: 92R / 29HR / 90RBI / 25SB / 0.269 AVG
2026 will be Wyatt's third big league season at the tender age of 24. Natural progression, experience, and 550-570 AB could be the perfect trifecta for fantasy glory. Home park factor and a so-so overall team lineup aside, this is a fourth round player primed to deliver 2nd round value. Batting between a healthy Brandon Nimmo and Cory Seager should provide a very high floor, and probably more.
ADP 125 - Alex Bergman
Projection: 93R / 23HR / 93RBI / 1SB / 0.259 AVG
Nothing to uncover here, Bergman is good and everyone knows it. Sure, he doesn’t have a team yet but dollars to old peanut shells says his ADP will be well inside the top 100 come March. What are you waiting for? Other than Westburg, there’s a big drop off at the position after Alex. Projections are difficult without a team context but his 2022 season is probably the mean, no matter where he lands.
ADP 131 - Luis Robert Jr
Projection: 86R / 30HR / 81RBI / 24SB / 0.277 AVG
2026 will be a good year for those with Junior at the end of their name, perhaps none more so than Luis Robert. I believe the coming year will see a number of small factors converge to have a big impact on Mr Robert’s performance. 1. The end of his current contract is just over the horizon and how he does this year will determine his earnings for the rest of his career. 2. Health. See reason # 1. It’s his motivation to take care of himself. 3. The young core of the team is full of potential and has another year under their belt. 4. The Munetaka Murakami signing is an indication of management's desire to improve the team, somewhat. (it couldn’t get any worse than last year). 5. Talent. His 2023 season wasn’t a fluke and we saw glimpses again in 2025 of what he is capable of.
ADP 139 - Jordan Westburg
Projection: 83R / 27HR / 82RBI / 4SB / 0.266 AVG
If he stays healthy, he’s a great buy at his current ADP. Entering his 27 year old season, 2026 is waiting for Westburg to take it by the horns. Now batting in front of Gunner AND Alonzo, Westburg is free to be himself, without the burden of expectation or spotlight. Adding Ward to the mix and the potential improvement or rebound of many other former fantasy darlings in the lineup will give Westburg, and the team, a real chance to make some offensive noise.
ADP 165 - Dylan Crews
Projection: 71R / 24HR / 79RBI / 29SB / 0.252 AVG
I keep trying to draft him and keep missing out. Many will be scared away by his batting average (and health) over the last two years but don’t be, he’s young and still learning. In the minors, he hit 0.273 in 575 ABs with 20 HR and 30 steals. That’s a nice season at any level. ABS will feel familiar to him and I think he’ll finally feel comfortable at the plate and turn the tables on these big league pitchers. He’s the real deal.
ADP 203 - Dalton Varsho
Projection: 73R / 29HR / 81RBI / 6SB / 0.242 AVG
Fun fact - Over the last 3 years, Varsho’s ABs have decreased every year while his SLG % has increased every year. Yes, 2025 was a smaller sample size and no one is predicting a HR every 12.4 at-bats in 2026, but even some moderate regression puts the O/U at about 30 HR, in what will probably be about 450-475 ABs. Not bad for a guy currently taken as the 49th outfielder off the board. Health risk? Sure, but so is Acuna. Dalton can currently be had in round 14 of a 15-team league and is one of the better risk/reward plays in the early part of this draft season. A better Points League play for sure, but I expect that if he stays healthy, the Jays approach to hitting will allow him to discover his true potential.
ADP 229 - Anthony Santander
Projection: 70R / 26HR / 77RBI / 1SB / 0.251 AVG
This is an important year for Santander. Watching on the side lines last year as the Jays came within a hair’s breath of winning it all, you could see the look in his eye - he was part of the team but he wasn’t part of the team. He has the track record, is in a potentially historic lineup, is now healthy, motivated, and Schneider likes him too. The Jays will continue to pinch hit, rotate, and rest guys - no reason to change their approach - but Santander should still see about 500 ABs. Could be a better buy than Varsho.
ADP 248 - Ryan Jeffers
Projection: 59R / 19HR / 66RBI / 2SB / 0.263 AVG
Bold Prediction - Ryan Jeffers gets more ABs than Will Smith in 2026. This says as much about Smith’s competition for DH at-bats in LA as it does Jeffer’s upside, but to me, this feels like a breakout year for Minny’s # 1 backstop. After smacking 21 HR with 64 Ribbies in 2024, Jeffers actually became a better hitter in 2025 with improved plate discipline. His BA jumped 40 points to 0.266 and his OBP was up 56 points to a healthy 0.356 (both similar to 2023) BUT, his power deserted him, ending the year with only 9 HR. If he combines the best of the last 3 years, Jeffers becomes Alejandro Kirk ‘light’ and will easily outperform his current ADP. Great value in 2-catchers leagues.
ADP 335 - Miguel Vargas
Projection: 78R / 20HR / 71RBI / 5SB / 0.240 AVG
His first full season was a nice one and there is still some room to grow. 2026 should again see 500+ ABs with plenty of opportunity to hit cleanup, depending on who’s pitching and Murakami's acclimatization. Dual eligibility, power upside, and a guaranteed spot in the lineup are hard to come by this late in drafts. Don’t sleep on him.
ADP 644 - Jonathan India
Projection: 68R / 14HR / 57RBI / 15SB / 0.245 AVG
A horrible season in 2025 should not scare you away in 2026. It didn’t scare the Royals who paid the 8 million dollar price tag to bring him back. India was a fantasy darling last year and after the flop, he is now a nice deep league sleeper. He’s a great example of situation and opportunity. The Royals played him all over the place last year, so you’ll appreciate his eligibility at 2B/3B/OF, but they plan to use him mostly at 2B this year, his traditional position. I think he settles in and gets back to his old self, mostly batting in the lower half of a productive lineup. DC league gold.